C Raja Mohan writes: Xi Jinping’s visit, a divided Europe and India’s challenge

Xi Jinping woos Europe

Xi’s travel to Europe after five years amid a spying scandal points to the growing Chinese penetration of the European ruling caste. Even more important is the European investigation into the Chinese dumping of electric vehicles and the prospect of major sanctions against China’s EV makers. Xi, on his part, is eager to persuade the Europeans not to escalate the trade war with China and reverse the declared strategy of “de-risking” the economic relationship with Beijing. China has economic carrots to offer, in the form of investments.

In Hungary, President Viktor Orban is a friend of China and will showcase Beijing’s plans to set up an EV factory in the country, undermining Europe’s ambitions to develop its own capability in this sector. China already is a major investor in the Serbian economy.

France too is eager to attract Chinese investments and insists that it will not participate in the attempted isolation of China by the US. “We need the Chinese”, Macron said, calling for a “reset” in the economic relations with China on the eve of Xi’s visit this week. During his visit to China last April, Macron declared that “Europe will not be America’s follower” on Taiwan. On the eve of Xi’s visit to France, Macron reaffirmed the message of European strategic autonomy and suggested that Europe will be a balancing power between the US and China. That is music to Xi’s ears, and he would want to probe the extent of the cleavage between Europe and the US on their China strategy.

China’s support for Russia

While China remains a valuable economic partner and a weighty global actor in dealing with issues like climate change, Xi’s support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has generated much concern in Europe. As Russia moves from a defensive posture in eastern Ukraine towards a more offensive one, there are growing fears that Putin might destabilise Central Europe.

Macron sought to stop the war in Ukraine in early 2022 by reaching out to Putin, arguing that Russia is a natural part of European security architecture and should not be isolated. Today, Macron affirms that Putin poses the biggest threat to Europe’s future. While thanking the US for its support, Macron says Europe can’t bet on this forever and needs to take charge of its security.

Macron has also floated the idea that Europe should be prepared to send troops into Ukraine to stop further advances by Putin’s armies. But it has met much resistance across Europe, including from Germany, which has no desire to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Some in Europe bet Xi is the only world leader who can moderate Putin’s policies towards Ukraine. They are eager to have his presence at the Ukraine Peace Conference being organised by Switzerland in June this year. But there is nothing to suggest that Xi is willing to undermine, let alone, abandon Putin at this moment.

After Paris, Xi stops in Serbia and Hungary, which have two of the most pro-Russian regimes in Europe. Xi’s bonhomie with the leaders in Budapest and Belgrade will at once underline the divisions in Europe and the extent of support for the Sino-Russian alliance.

While the US characterisation of the Sino-Russian entente as an “axis of the authoritarians” has some resonance in liberal Europe, Xi’s call to reject Cold War mentality and bloc politics sounds right to the peace constituencies in the continent. Xi has timed his visit to Serbia to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. China has never stopped using that incident to counter the Western narrative of upholding international law and a rules-based order.

Trump’s push and Macron’s pull

As Xi and Putin step up political attacks on NATO, there is some unintended reinforcement from the US. In a recent interview with Time magazine, former President Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for the presidential elections later this year, reaffirmed his well-known complaints against Europe. Trump, who has long accused NATO allies of not contributing their share of the European defence burden, insisted that the US will not defend those countries in Europe that do not pay their fair share. Trump also excoriated the European Union for their protectionism and has promised to press for a more equitable trade relationship.

In his recent interview with the Economist, Macron underlined the need to build European sovereignty to survive and prosper amid the unfolding political, economic, and technological domination of the US and China. But sceptics point to the deep divisions within Europe that limit the possibilities for translating Macron’s ambitious quest for “European strategic autonomy”. Yet, the bonds between the US and Europe are too tight for either side to simply walk away from the other.

Challenge for Delhi

Irrespective of its eventual choice, Europe’s response to its geopolitical trilemma will have major consequences for India’s relations with the US, Russia, and China. Europe sees Russia as the principal threat and China as an opportunity and is under pressure from the US to share a greater part of the defence burden in Europe against Russia and contribute to Asian security by boosting the US balancing effort against China. For Delhi, Beijing is the principal challenge and Moscow is part of the answer. Meanwhile, US domestic politics has become a variable in shaping great power relations.

If Delhi does not want to be a passive victim of potential big shifts in the relations between Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing, it will need to step up its engagement with Europe. This must include a greater focus on trade and security challenges like Ukraine. The last few years have seen India end its traditional neglect of Europe. It has enhanced the outreach to individual European powers like France, sub-regional groups like the Nordics, small economic groups like EFTA, and the European Union. But Delhi has barely scratched India’s strategic possibilities in Europe.

The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express and visiting professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore